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kimdave68
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 03:06 am | 1st Post |
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NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203113.shtml?5day?large#contents
Areas in FL could get some needed rain from this one. Or...
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kathy32259
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 03:10 am | 2nd Post |
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What a switch from yesterday's forecast. They were predicting it would travel up the east coast. It better be gone by next Saturday - long gone and I mean it!! 
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kimdave68
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 01:25 pm | 3rd Post |
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Intensity forecasts are far more accurate than tracking. That said, NHC forecasters are now calling for a CAT1 in the eastern Gulf possibly targeting the big bend. Anyone from the Keys to the Panhandle should keep their eyes on this.
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hstrybuf
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 02:59 pm | 4th Post |
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That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather!  Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
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cruisingfromMN
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 11:14 pm | 5th Post |
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Looks like I'm going to be impacted... 
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shoreguy
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 11:20 pm | 6th Post |
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cruisingfromMN wrote: Looks like I'm going to be impacted...
Did you really expect anything different. It is just one of those years  
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Posted: Sat Aug 16th, 2008 11:53 pm | 7th Post |
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cruisingfromMN wrote: Looks like I'm going to be impacted...
It looks now like you should be able to get out on Monday but they may try to get out a little early. This could change if the storm picks up speed.
If the storm goes to the eastern side of its projected path, Tuesday may end up a sea day.
How much steam it will lose over Cuba and how fast it can regain steam Monday is the question.
I've been on the Sky three times and in rough seas a couple of those. It handles it fairly well. Quite a bit of pitch but not much roll so mid ship in 20+ seas wasn't bad.
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hstrybuf
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 12:03 am | 8th Post |
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cruisingfromMN wrote: Looks like I'm going to be impacted...
We'll keep our fingers crossed for you!
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 12:30 am | 9th Post |
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I just did a little more research on Fay. Right now, it is very disorganized. The eye has actually outran the rain storms associated with it. The eye is very close to touching the eastern end of Cuba. Therefore, with winds of 45 right now, there should be very little, of any, intensification in the short run.
If it stays on the projected path, it will be over Cuba most of tomorrow and until around noon or so Monday. This will also keep it from getting stronger and may weaken it a bit more.. If it goes from Cuba into the southern tip of Florida, I doubt it will become a hurricane. If it goes up to the west of Florida, it may.
Anyway, even if it would stay over water, it has a lot of organizing to do before it can get bigger.
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 12:36 am | 10th Post |
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Here is the projected path
Attachment: fay.jpg (Downloaded 55 times)
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hstrybuf
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 01:14 am | 11th Post |
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| I hope you're right! All of you down Florida way, keep safe!
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kimdave68
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 03:53 am | 12th Post |
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Leaving east FL? Not much "impact" unless a little chop and showers is big! 
That image should stay up to date as the runs change. Tampa should be a fun stay Tuesday night if that holds water. 
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cruisingfromMN
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 02:29 pm | 13th Post |
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Thanks for all the info. I'm on my way to the airport now. No matter what, I'll either be on a ship or having fun figuring out how to survive the hurricane. Been in one before so, I can manage again.
Have a good week everyone.
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 02:31 pm | 14th Post |
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cruisingfromMN wrote: Thanks for all the info. I'm on my way to the airport now. No matter what, I'll either be on a ship or having fun figuring out how to survive the hurricane. Been in one before so, I can manage again.
Have a good week everyone.
Have a wonderful trip.
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clgcruiser
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 03:01 pm | 15th Post |
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hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
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kathy32259
Funnel Deck Cruiser
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 03:26 pm | 16th Post |
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clgcruiser wrote: hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
Nope - the wedding is in November. Next week I head to Vegas - Fay will be long gone by then Looks like we are gonna have some effects from this storm no matter what - unless it fizzles....
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 03:34 pm | 17th Post |
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There has been some slight strengthening this morning as the eye has stayed just off the south coast of Cuba. Winds now at 50 and if it stays off shore for a bit, it may be a Cat 1 as it enters Cuba.
How long will it stay on the island and how much it will weaken is the next question.
They have gone back to the original projected path up Florida's west coast.
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clgcruiser
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 03:38 pm | 18th Post |
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kathy32259 wrote: clgcruiser wrote: hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
Nope - the wedding is in November. Next week I head to Vegas - Fay will be long gone by then Looks like we are gonna have some effects from this storm no matter what - unless it fizzles....
I'm jealous-2 Vegas trips this year? You lucky dawg!
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kathy32259
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 05:11 pm | 19th Post |
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clgcruiser wrote: kathy32259 wrote: clgcruiser wrote: hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
Nope - the wedding is in November. Next week I head to Vegas - Fay will be long gone by then Looks like we are gonna have some effects from this storm no matter what - unless it fizzles....
I'm jealous-2 Vegas trips this year? You lucky dawg!
Yeah well....someone is going on the cruise I was supposed to be on in October.... The trip to Vegas in July took the place of the cruise - the trip this month is the annual trek - and fwiw - there is ALWAYS a hurricane headed our direction the week before our annual trek - never fails - no matter when we schedule it. Geesh
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hstrybuf
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 06:58 pm | 20th Post |
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cruisingfromMN wrote: Thanks for all the info. I'm on my way to the airport now. No matter what, I'll either be on a ship or having fun figuring out how to survive the hurricane. Been in one before so, I can manage again.
Have a good week everyone.
Safe travels! Hope you really get to enjoy your cruise!
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hstrybuf
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 06:59 pm | 21st Post |
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clgcruiser wrote: hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
I hope everyone will be safe and that Jeff and GG (and everyone else) will be able to check in to let us know their situation.
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"In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
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clgcruiser
Funnel Deck Cruiser
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 07:02 pm | 22nd Post |
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kathy32259 wrote: clgcruiser wrote: kathy32259 wrote: clgcruiser wrote: hstrybuf wrote: That means GG (grinningramps) could be looking at some bad weather! Thanks for the heads up Dave. With everything going on around here, I haven't even looked at anything but the local forecast.
Jessemon and my stepmom, too!
Hope all goes well with your trip, CfMN!
Kathy, is next week the big wedding?
Nope - the wedding is in November. Next week I head to Vegas - Fay will be long gone by then Looks like we are gonna have some effects from this storm no matter what - unless it fizzles....
I'm jealous-2 Vegas trips this year? You lucky dawg!
Yeah well....someone is going on the cruise I was supposed to be on in October.... The trip to Vegas in July took the place of the cruise - the trip this month is the annual trek - and fwiw - there is ALWAYS a hurricane headed our direction the week before our annual trek - never fails - no matter when we schedule it. Geesh
:bunny: :bunny: :bunny:
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 07:31 pm | 23rd Post |
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As of the 11 am advisory, winds are still 50. The eye is still moving west along the south Cuba coast so is pulling dryer air off the island. This has kept the eye ahead of the rains so there is just partly cloudy skies to the west of the eye.
The eye was due south of the southern tip of Florida and with it still moving west, it looks like it will still go more out in the Gulf after Cuba and then the best guess is hit the middle Florida west coast near Tampa Tuesday morning.
The southern county in Florida has cancelled school for tomorrow but Miami/Dade County has not so anyone cruising out of Miami tomorrow still looks good.
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Posted: Sun Aug 17th, 2008 09:35 pm | 24th Post |
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Hurricane Hunter has flown through the storm and not much has changed. Winds still 50 and still moving west off the Cuba coast.
However, some convection has happened around the eye so it is a bit more organized.
Projected path still to the Gulf side and a hit near Tampa. The path has move a bit to the west and now Miami is not within the projected path.
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Posted: Mon Aug 18th, 2008 12:01 am | 25th Post |
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The convection that tried to build around the eye has lessened as the storm is still going into dryer air. It is still very disorganized. With more dryer air still ahead of it, it most likely won't do any organizing or build in strenght until it exits the north shore of Cuba later tomorrow. Winds have held steady at 50 all day.
The most dangerous thing associated with this storm has been bands of T-Storms as far north as the Keys. Here is the latest projected path.
Attachment: fay2.jpg (Downloaded 33 times)
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